The second page of this article lays out some math to calculate your Half-iron time goal based on a past Olympic distance performance. So, based on my results at The Grand Columbian, I should be shooting for:
If I’m suuuuuper slow in my transitions, they could take up to 5 minutes each, so I’ll give myself a goal of 6:52:10 as the time to beat.
I’ll be in much better shape by May than I was last September, but the difficulty of the World’s Toughest Half might cancel out that advantage. Plus, although an average run speed of 5.2 mph is entirely doable, a bike average of 16 mph over 56 miles of mountainous terrain is sounding a little nuts. I’ll have a better idea of how realistic that is once I’ve actually ridden that far, which my training plan doesn’t have me doing until April.
Until then, I’ll just have to make sure my long Saturday rides have plenty of hills!